Wednesday, 29 June 2011

Indian equities extend the northbound journey; global cues support

Indian equity indices have continued the good work this Wednesday afternoon as investors showed unrelenting buying interests a day after appearing a bit exhausted. The benchmarks have gone on to re-capture the important psychological 5,600 levels and 18,700 levels and are currently trading at the high point of the day with over a percent gains. The sanguine opening for European stock markets has buttressed local sentiments while positive Asian peers too have done their bit in keeping the mood upbeat. Investors looked increasingly confident that the parliamentary vote on austerity measures in Greece will pass successfully later in the session, which would result in a fresh bailout package. However, investors' morale also got a boost as FIIs have turned net buyers since Friday, indicating that interest of foreign funds are not fading any time soon. Marketmen are resorting to broad based buying on the penultimate session of June month F&O contract settlement. Heavy buying was witnessed in the defensive FMCG names like ITC and HUL while shares from Metal and Power counters too remained amid the thick of things. However, profit booking was evident in few high beta real estate and oil and gas pockets. Information technology counter rejoiced after a report stating that the Indian enterprise software market showed broad growth and recovery in 2010, with total software revenue increasing 16.3 per cent to total $2.5 billion.

Moreover, the broader markets are showing some resilience in the afternoon session and are trading with well over half a percent gains. The market breadth on BSE was in favor of advances in the ratio of 1677:909 while 87 scrips remained unchanged.

The BSE Sensex is currently trading at 18,695.37 up by 202.92 points or 1.10% after trading as high as 18,701.21 and as low as 18,552.19. There were 26 stocks advancing against 4 declines on the index.

The broader indices were trading on a positive note; the BSE Mid cap and Small cap indices advanced by 0.64% and 0.87% respectively. 

On the BSE sectoral space, FMCG up 1.99%, Metal up 1.36%, Power up 1.17%, IT up 0.94% and Bankex up 0.89% were the major gainers, while there were no losers on the index.

The top gainers on the Sensex were R Infra up by 2.40%, Sterlite up by 2.40%, BHEL up by 2.25%, HUL up 2.23% and Tata Motors up 2.22%.

On the flip side, ONGC down by 1%, JP Associates down by 0.70%, Bajaj Auto down 0.48% and DLF down 0.12% were the only losers on the index.

Despite the recent indication of slowdown in economic expansion because of inflation and increased interest rates by  the Reserve Bank of India to curb inflation, Indian economy is expected to grow by 9 to 9.5% in the next five year plan. The Planning commission Deputy Chairman Montek Singh Ahluwalia said India is in a strong position to achieve 9-9.5 per cent growth during the 12th Five-Year Plan (2012-17).

M S Ahluwalia said "Although the global situation is difficult, we should be able to achieve average 9 per cent growth during 12th Plan if tough policy decisions are taken in critical areas." The planning commission is presently giving the finale outline to the 12th five year plan approach paper and it is expected to finish the process in few days.

Ahluwalia said, "Achieving even 9 per cent growth rate is not easy. It requires lot of tough decisions. Over a five-year period, we should be able to take these decisions." He is hopeful for better performance of the economy in the next five year plan, supported by the policy actions. "We can do even better than 9 per cent provided we are able to take difficult decisions in the areas, including management of energy prices, infrastructure management and management of water resources. We must pay attention to ground water recharge and scientific watershed management," he added.

Stressing on the need for fiscal consolidation for better performance on economic growth, planning commission deputy chairman said, "It will also be necessary to make genuine progress towards fiscal consolidation, which depends mainly on reducing untargeted subsidies." Adding further he said "None of this is easy but possible. If we do all of this, we can achieve average growth of 9 per cent in the 12th Plan."

Ahluwalia, however, cautioned that unrealistic expectations on growth should not be raised. "I am not in favour of encouraging unrealistic expectations about growth. We have to wake up and smell the coffee," he said.

During the present 11th five year plan, Indian economy grew on an average over 8%, below the target of 9%. However, the GDP growth is outstanding given the global economic downturn and deficient monsoon during the 11th five year plan period. In 10th five year plan, India's average gross domestic product (GDP) growth was around 7.7%.

In the full planning commission meeting headed by the Prime Minister Manmohan Singh on April 21, planning commission in its presentation on the 12th five year plan expectation pointed out that a growth of 9 to 9.5% for the plan period could be directed. "Realistically, even 9 per cent will need strong policy action," the plan body said in its presentation.

The S&P CNX Nifty is currently trading at 5,602.25, higher by 56.95 points or 1.03% after trading as high as 5,604.65 and as low as 5,566.50. There were 42 stocks advancing against 8 declines on the index.

The top gainers of the Nifty were IDFC up by 3.32%, Sterlite up by 2.62%, R Infra up by 2.55%, ITC up by 2.40% and HUL up by 2.24%.

ONGC down by 1.16%, BPCL down by 1.15%, R Power down by 1%, Cairn down by 0.75% and JP Associates down 0.70% were the major losers on the index.

Asian markets are exhibiting positive trends as KLSE Composite rose 0.14%, Nikkei 225 climbed 1.54%, Straits Times increased 0.55%, Seoul Composite soared 1.53% and Taiwan Weighted jumped 1.11%.

On the flipside, Shanghai Composite slipped 0.81% and Hang Seng declined 0.02%.

Stock markets in Indonesia remained shut on account of a public holiday. The European markets have opened on an optimistic note as France's CAC 40 added 0.84%, Germany's DAX advance 0.86% and London's FTSE rose 0.79%.


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